Iran is about to close the Strait of Hormuz. Europe: Inflation likely rises to 4.3-5.5% within 6 months, with a 10-20% risk of exceeding 6% if the closure persists or supply chains falter. US: Inflation likely rises to 2.7-3.0%, with a 5-10% chance of hitting 3.5% if global markets overreact or reserves are depleted.